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Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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