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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.