Why Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in the president's attempts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
The president loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the potential summit in Hungary.
The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.